
The Apple Watch Won't Help Lift the Sagging Price of Gold
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- With gold prices knocking on five-year lows, and ETF investors selling out again after a brief New Year return, could Apple (AAPL) be about to resurrect the bull market, as some have suggested?
Not a prayer.
Apple's design chief Jony Ives might walk on water as far as tech-heads and gadget fans as concerned, but helping the sagging price of gold price by selling one million watches per month at $10,000 each -- as some click-bait stories claim -- would truly be a miracle.
End-use demand for gold runs to some 125 million ounces worldwide per year (more commonly expressed as 4,000 metric tonnes). Around 55% of that goes to jewelry, the vast bulk worked into necklaces and bracelets for the giant Indian and Chinese consumer markets. Gold watch production is a tiny fraction, with Switzerland's luxury timepieces using a mere 285,000 ounces based on very generous analysis of its 2014 trade data -- less than 0.3% of global gold demand.
Can Apple push that to one-third of global end-use?
Rumor was that each Apple Watch Edition would contain two ounces of gold. But comparing the spec against the basic model suggests each unit will contain nearer to one ounce of fine gold, only half what a gold Rolex apparently contains. And unlike a Rolex -- with its promise of "eternity" in the "perpetual" name-tag -- the technology running the Apple watch will of course be out-dated inside a year, obsolete within two.
To the luxury watch buyer, gold cases in fact go against recent trends according to the leading industry survey. And for the would-be luxury watch owner, the Apple Edition's gold content will also be worth much less in cash terms than the current spot-market value of $1,150. Because reclaiming that metal as scrap -- especially from Apple's 'hard' 18-carat alloy -- will carry recycling costs, as cash-for-gold customers know all too well.
As for the company's targets, making one million Editions per month as last month's rumor claimed -- picked up from Apple-chat rooms, then repeated in the Wall Street Journal, and since splashed across the bait-o-sphere -- would eat 50 times what Swiss luxury watchmakers might perhaps be using each year. At the corporate level, it would also add 10% to Apple's last 12 months' operating costs, just in sourcing the gold, never mind processing or casting it.
Crazier still, selling that many gold watches at $10,000 apiece would generate $10 billion in new revenues -- each and every month. That would equal an impossible 68% boost to Apple's 2014 sales worldwide.
Those sales, remember, generated the fattest profits in history. Because unlike at Amazon (AMZN) , the bottom line really does matter to Apple. How else do you think it decided on a retail price of $10,000 for a $350 smart-watch set in perhaps $1,150 of gold?
But besides the occasional sale with a 650% mark-up, what's in it for Apple? Fact is, the world's greatest tech marketing monster has earned great internet buzz around "that watch" -- second only to "that dress" in the last month -- and the gold Edition has played a big part.
Perhaps Apple is trying to ape a luxury brand with its gold watch, flaunting unaffordable, unsellable bling on the catwalk to help drive sales of its cheaper, more useful products to the masses. For Chanel's lipsticks and perfumes, read Apple's new laptops and sports watches.
Either way, demand for $10,000 versions of its new watch will prove a very small niche at best: gadget lovers with money to burn and no hope of ever reclaiming its value, using it as collateral, or passing it on as an heirloom -- key rationalizations for the luxury watch buyer. Nor will a gold Apple watch impress your friends for very long -- the other key appeal.
While gold is forever, the technology will soon turn stale. You will, meantime, have spent $10,000 or more on something that lost 90% of its value the moment you left the shop. Very few people have the money -- or wish -- to do that. Way too few to have any impact on the gold market. It is driven instead by people seeking to store value, not give it away.
2015 has so far disappointed gold bulls, at least in Dollar terms. ETF investors are now reversing January's 10% leap in the size of the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) . Against the rest of the world's money, however, gold is trading very much stronger after beating all other currencies in 2014. And these five-year lows put gold's historic value as a portfolio hedge at a discount, aided by the equity market's current highs.
But if you are looking for reasons to buy gold, Apple's new watch shouldn't be one of them. Like the myth of Chinese gold demand driving the price, file these latest headlines under "click bait."
This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.