Vote Like Your Money Depends on It
11/04/08 - 09:07 AM EST
Kevin Baker
Nine months ago, when I wrote If McCain Wins, So Could These Funds, Sen. John McCain was locking up the Republican Party nomination. Since then, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has lost 22% of its value while the Nasdaq 100 has tumbled 24.5%.
Two of my three McCain fund picks did worse than the market, with Fidelity Select Defense and Aerospace (FSDAX Quote - Cramer on FSDAX - Stock Picks) off 31%, and PowerShares Aerospace & Defense (PPA Quote - Cramer on PPA - Stock Picks) down 30.59%. A surprise victory by McCain could put stock holdings of Honeywell (HON Quote - Cramer on HON - Stock Picks), minus 46.6%; Lockheed Martin (LMT Quote - Cramer on LMT - Stock Picks), down 18.7%; Boeing (BA Quote - Cramer on BA - Stock Picks), a decline of 33.2%; and General Dynamics (GD Quote - Cramer on GD - Stock Picks), a drop of 26.7%, back in favor. The one McCain pick to outperform the market, falling just 1.81% since early February, was the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI Quote - Cramer on XBI - Stock Picks). Back on Feb. 8, McCain had yet to select a running mate. Former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge recently explained that McCain could be winning Pennsylvania if McCain had selected him. Instead, McCain, needing to energize the Republican base, selected Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. While this has excited right-wing social-values voters, a Vice President Palin might do the "mavericky" thing and work to defeat the support of cutting edge, scientific companies. So, in a McCain victory, SPDR S&P Biotech is now off the list, but the defense funds remain. Also since February, when I selected Funds That Could Profit From Clinton, Obama in Office, the bullish picks for Sen. Barack Obama of PowerShares Wilderhill Clean Energy Portfolio (PBW Quote - Cramer on PBW - Stock Picks) fizzled 54.5% and PowerShares Dynamic Building & Construction (PKB Quote - Cramer on PKB - Stock Picks) crumbled 36.7%. Likewise, my bearish picks of iShares Dow Jones U.S. Insurance Index Fund (IAK Quote - Cramer on IAK - Stock Picks) crashed 47.4% and SPDR Pharmaceuticals ETF (XPH Quote - Cramer on XPH - Stock Picks) shrank 14.5%. While the bullish picks have been trashed so far, they are well-positioned to catch a rebound in the first half of 2009 if Obama gets sworn in on Jan. 20.
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